The 1918 American flu vs. the Corona pandemic 2019

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The poorly named Spanish Flu of 1918 is the most significant health catastrophe in history, far above the Crown Virus. It caused between 50-100 million deaths. The record for the Corona Virus is 1 million deaths worldwide after almost a year since its appearance.
 
 
First wave
 
The American flu began in 1918. The first recorded cases were in the state of Kansas in the first quarter of this year, at Fort Riley military barracks (March 4) where patient 0 was identified (cook Gilbert Mitchell) and also in Haskell County. 
It was initially called the "Kansas Flu". This first epidemic wave or outbreak, it was the most benevolent of all.
 
We can compare this first wave to the rise of the coronavirus in December 2019. According to Chinese data, there are 5,000 deaths, although there will probably be 50,000 only in China.
 
The main difference between the 1918 North American flu and earlier ones was a potentially deadly defensive immune reaction known as a cytokine storm. An exaggerated response of the host's immune system to the virus (also known as host protein hijacking by influenza). 
In 1918 the origin of the disease was not known. Some doctors mentioned the Influenza bacillus (at that time it was born the bacteriological era of Pasteur and Koch). The viruses had been discovered only a few years ago and did not link it to the disease. Only in 2001 the American virus was typed as A H1N1.
 
The first wave spread worldwide due to the First World War. Soldiers travel and spread the disease. In the summer of 1918, the virus became more lethal and contagious. It disseminated around the world, with three significant outbreaks: Boston (United States), Brest (France) and Freetown (Sierra Leone). The lethality of the mutated virus increased on 22 August in the French port of Brest. Half the allied US troops landed there, though the first cases were in Bordeaux in April. 
Between March and September 1918 over a million American soldiers landed in Europe. Some historians think that the 1st world war ended because of this plague, which attacked German troops very hard.
 
We could compare it to the global spread of the corona virus in February - March 2020. From China it went to Iran, then to Italy and the whole world. This first wave subsided in May-June, the epidemic was imagined to be under control.
 
Second Wave
 
In autumn 1918, it was really the great epidemic, the so-called second wave (13 weeks, from September to mid-December), the most lethal of all and which gave its name to the "worst plague in history", which affected a large number of the world population and increased the mortality rate by 6-8%, especially among young and active, worsening the productivity of the countries concerned. 
 
The virus reached remote territories such as Oceania and Alaska. In the isolated areas, mortality in some Eskimo tribes was over 90 per cent.
 
In December 1918, the flu gradually disappeared from many affected areas, leaving a "little calm" at Christmas time.
 
Something similar is likely to happen with the virus wreath in Europe. It will begin in September with the relaxation of measures and will gradually disappear by mid-December 2020 to give some oxygen until the third wave.
 
 
The third wave
 
The third wave of the American flu was in February and March 1919, and would last until mid-May of that same year. Its lethality was similar to the second wave, being shorter in its beginning and decline, affecting more the areas less punished previously by influenza. This was the global spread of the pandemic. 
Comparing the evolution with the Corana virus It is very likely that there will be another third wave of the Corana virus between February and March 2021. Viruses are cyclical and adapt to the seasons like influenza
 
The fourth wave
 
In the winter of 1920, the fourth epidemic outbreak appeared, with lower mortality and severity. The difference was that it affected younger children preferentially.
 
It is also likely that there will be a final re-emergence of the corona virus in late 2021.
 
The 1918 North American flu, which lasted just over a year, was brought under control in 1919 and ended in 1920. It affected up to a quarter of the US population and spread around the world with the help of the First World War. Scientists believe that at least one-third of the world's population at the time, estimated at 1.8 billion, was infected.
 
Covid flu began in late 2019. It will probably have 4 waves. The first was the most lethal. It will probably last all of 2020 and will be brought under control in 2021 (spring - summer) with a small outbreak at the end of this year. It will disappear in 2022.
 
If we extrapolate the historical results, 2021 or 2022 will be like the happy 1920s. The survivors will enter a phase of euphoria, including at the economic level. The level of medical care will be improved and will even influence town planning. Open spaces and sanitation works will be preferred. Unemployment will fall after the end of the pandemic, and there will be a period of prosperity of almost a decade.
 
But let us remember a sad reality. The happy 1920s ended with the crisis of 1929. A global economic catastrophe. And fascism and communism grew in Europe. 
There is a historical risk that after the end of the crown virus in 2021, there will be an economic expansion during this decade to end with a great crisis in 2030 and the rise of neo-fascism and neo-communism in the world. But this is another story. Let us remember the visionary Orwell with 1984.